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Are we closer or further from a recession?

Monthly forecast from Bloomberg Economics on the probability of a recession within the next 12 months

Analysis of the indicators that show whether a recession risk is increasing or decreasing based on the data in our proprietary model

Context of what this all means by comparing the past month’s performance to the same indicators from previous recessions

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About The Recession Tracker

Bloomberg Economics uses a proprietary model to estimate the probability of recession at zero, three, six and twelve month time horizons. The model incorporates financial indicators, activity data and measures of background imbalances. Each month, the numbers will be updated to show the current probability of recession within the next 12 months. We’ll also drill down to show which indicators are increasing — or reducing — that risk. To put this all into context, we’ll show the performance of the same indicators leading up to and during previous recessions.